Under the dual promotion of the new energy wave and global competition, traditional fuel heavy trucks are undergoing a profound industrial transformation.
Since August 2025, many cities and counties in China, including Tongling in Anhui Province, Dandong in Liaoning Province, and Baotou in Inner Mongolia, have suspended the acceptance of scrap and renewal subsidies for diesel operated trucks of National IV and below.
This policy change is due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds. After the policy of including National IV diesel vehicles in the subsidy scope in 2025, the sales of heavy-duty trucks reached 624000 units in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 11%.
01 Market situation: The proportion of fuel heavy trucks is declining, and new energy is accelerating its substitution
The traditional fuel heavy truck market is undergoing significant changes. In recent years, diesel heavy-duty trucks have shown a significant downward trend in both new additions and existing stock.
According to Beidou data, the market penetration rate of diesel heavy-duty trucks has fallen to less than 50%. This means that in the heavy-duty truck market, the share of diesel heavy-duty trucks is decreasing, while the market share of natural gas heavy-duty trucks and new energy heavy-duty trucks is rising rapidly.
The trend of replacing new energy heavy trucks is evident. In 2024, the sales volume of new energy heavy-duty trucks in the domestic market reached 82000 units, a year-on-year increase of 140%. By December 2024, the penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks has reached 21.89%, which means that for every 5 heavy-duty trucks sold, 1 is a new energy vehicle model.
02 Technological Evolution: Efficiency Improvement of Fuel Heavy Trucks, Intelligentization into a New Track
In the face of market competition, traditional fuel heavy trucks still have irreplaceable advantages in specific transportation conditions, especially in efficient performance in long-distance and high-intensity transportation scenarios.
The technology of fuel heavy trucks is also constantly advancing. Parts companies represented by Wanliyang are promoting the research and development of heavy-duty truck transmission series products, and their Smart Star series heavy-duty truck transmission products have achieved significant market promotion effects.
Intelligent technology has opened up a new track for fuel heavy trucks. The vehicle networking platform reduces maintenance costs through real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance, and L4 level autonomous driving heavy-duty trucks are starting to land in ports, mines, and other scenarios.
03 International layout: Chinese car companies accelerate their overseas expansion, moving from trade to localization
Chinese commercial vehicle companies are accelerating their global layout, shifting from a simple trade model to deeply cultivating localized operations.
In July 2025, China's commercial vehicle exports reached 76000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8%. From January to July, the export of commercial vehicles was 577000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%.
Beiqi Foton has established the first overseas localization base for Chinese commercial vehicles in Brazil - the Beiqi Foton Brazil factory has officially started production and operation. The first stage production capacity of the factory is expected to be 3000 vehicles, and the second stage will be 10000 vehicles.
FAW Liberation also plans to establish wholly-owned overseas subsidiaries in 8 countries including Uzbekistan and Indonesia. As of mid-2025, 4 subsidiaries have been approved.
04 Competitive Landscape: Dual track Development of Top Enterprises, Cross border Entry of Construction Machinery Giants
China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and other traditional leading enterprises adhere to the dual track development strategy of "traditional energy+new energy". In the traditional energy sector, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has achieved full range and product coverage of fuel and gas vehicles, and its market share continues to rank first in the country.
In 2024, there will be a new change in the sales ranking of new energy heavy-duty trucks, with the top two manufacturers being new forces in the heavy-duty truck field - XCMG Heavy Truck and Sany Heavy Truck. The parent companies of these two major construction machinery giants themselves produce construction machinery and are major customers of heavy-duty truck manufacturers. Now they are directly bypassing heavy-duty truck manufacturers and building their own heavy-duty trucks.
The traditional four major heavy truck giants (China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Motor, and Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Truck) rank third to sixth in the sales ranking of new energy heavy trucks.
05 Outlook: The market is expected to return to one million vehicles by 2025, with intensified global competition
With the implementation of the National IV elimination policy, the heavy truck industry is expected to return to a sales scale of 1 million vehicles by 2025. According to Beidou data, by the end of 2024, the total number of national quadruple trucks in China reached 764000. If the replacement ratio reaches 25%, 50%, and 75%, the sales volume will increase by 191000, 267000, and 573000 respectively by 2025.
By superimposing natural replacement cycles, the growth of the heavy truck industry is more certain. The design lifespan of heavy trucks is generally 8-12 years, and the industry's peak annual sales from 2017 to 2019 exceeded 1.1 million units, coinciding with the replacement window by 2025.
Future competition will become more globalized. Chinese car companies seize global market share through technology output and brand upgrading, and establish leading advantages in the fields of new energy and intelligence.
At the same time, cross domain mergers and strategic alliances will accelerate industry integration, and the global industrial landscape is facing restructuring.
The global heavy-duty truck industry is standing at a historical turning point.
By 2025, with the catalysis of the National III and IV elimination policies, combined with factors such as natural elimination of old cars and macroeconomic improvement, the heavy truck industry is expected to return to a scale of 1 million vehicles.
The competition in the future market will no longer be limited to the choice of fuel types, but will focus more on the full lifecycle cost, intelligence level, and global operational capabilities of products.
